As any regular on an FPL forum well knows, the new FPL bonus points system (BPS) has been quite the conundrum for fantasy players this season. Unlike the previous incarnation which was calculated by EA Sports behind closed doors, this season’s bonus points are calculated using OptaStats with a publicly accessible formula. The results though have been unexpected, with goalkeepers and defenders factoring in bonus point equations at the expense of their attacking brethren. In today’s post, I analyze the impact of the new BPS system to determine what, if any, real changes have occurred.
The first action was to limit the size of the player pool evaluated to something manageable (lots of manual calculations required in this analysis). Accordingly, I took a look at all non-goalkeepers with at least three percent ownership and 160 minutes played. Arbitrary, yes, but considering we are already dealing with ridiculously small sample sizes I felt it prudent to ensure that the players analyzed had seen the pitch a fair amount. Since it’s my study, I get to call the shots; if you fervently disagree I encourage you to start your own blog! 🙂
Kolo and his amazing powers of regeneration
Well hello there. Welcome to my Gameweek 3 musings. As I mentioned last week, we can’t draw a whole hell of a lot from such a small sample size. However, as we head into the international break and the end of the transfer window, I feel there are somethings of interest to fantasy players everywhere.
- Is Kolo Toure related to the Wolverine? On Wednesday, Toure looked as though his groin had been ripped in two. Unable to put stand or put any pressure on his leg, Toure was stretchered off and was presumably looking at a lengthy absence. Miraculously, he has healed enough to be potentially in contention for this week and should, at minimum, be back in the lineup in Gameweek 4. To be blunt, I am shocked. Let’s see if this isn’t just gamesmanship from Rodgers.
- Roberto Soldado needs to pick up his production ASAP. Soldado has gotten off to a splendid start, scoring twice from the spot and averaging a brilliant eight points per game. He’s risen in price once and is about 80% of the way to another rise. Great start right? Not so fast. Soldado’s underlying stats have been poor and his performance at home against Swansea was atrocious. The Spaniard has just 3 shots from open play, only one of which hit the target, Even more concerning was his lack of presence in the box last week as he managed just one touch in the penalty area. That’s simply not good enough at £ 9.6 million. If he doesn’t improve this week I will probably ship him out for Benteke or Sturridge after the break.
- Shrek is back! Shrek is back! It now appears that Wayne Rooney will stay with the Red Devils this year. From a fantasy perspective this is massive. Rooney was nearly as good as his much more lauded (and expensive) teammate last season, averaging nearly as many shots, chances created and fantasy points per 90 minutes as Van Persie. This was especially true before Rooney’s Boxing Day injury and the fall out from his UCL benching. At £ 3.5 million cheaper than the Flying Dutchman, Rooney represents a real alternative for access to United’s attack. I, for one, will be keenly watching his performance over the next few weeks to see if he is the man for me.
- The change in bonus points are real, but overstated. The new BPS formula has been a hot top in the FPL universe so far this season. Defenders and goalkeepers have been grabbing bonus points that, in past seasons, would have fallen to attacking players. Midfielders in particular have been victimized with only 28 bonus points being awarded to midfielders thus far. It is my opinion that the system has changed, but it is not as dramatic as the early results have made it seem. The real difference this season has been a lack of goals, with scoring down about 25% as compared to last year. This obviously favors defenders and keepers with respect to bonus points. Once midfielders begin scoring again (they have scored just thirteen goals in total) they’ll grab the bonus points. I have empirical data to back this assertion, but will save that for next week.
That’s it for now. Good luck to all!
Sorry to be gone so long, but life can sometimes get in the way of our little hobbies. For me, I’ve run off and gotten married and subsequently dealt with a whole number of less than fun “events.” The good news is that things are improving and I should have a bit more time to devote to musing about the new FPL season!
I don’t have much to talk about this week really. A single gameweek is not nearly long enough for my ratings to offer any insight. Further, there weren’t all that many surprises in GW 1, at least nothing on par with Michu’s, Fellaini’s and Petric’s performances last season (remember when Petric had two goals and an assist in opening day…those were the days). At this point, I’m not sure we know a whole heck of a lot we didn’t suspect in the preseason. So, rather than spit out a bunch of “insight” you’ve seen a dozen other places, I’ll leave you with my final rankings from last season.
Good luck to you all and see you again sooner rather than later!