Monthly Archives: September 2013

GW 5 Team Ratings

GW5 Ratings

Gameweek 5 ratings (explanation of methodology here).  I have presented the ratings in two flavors, the typical strength of schedule adjusted version and a raw, unadjusted version.  No comments this week.

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GW 4 Team Ratings

GW4 Ratings

Here is a look at my ridiculously early team ratings.  For newbies to this blog, please review how these ratings are calculated here.  I have presented the ratings in two flavors, the typical strength of schedule adjusted version and a raw, unadjusted version.  A few comments:

  • Obviously, these numbers come with a HUGE sample size caveat.  Four games is not nearly enough time to determine club quality, especially when outliers are involved (e.g., Newcastle at the Ethiad in week one).
  • Interesting to see that the expected top seven have already established themselves above the pack.  While positions have changed among the group, the elite are the same as they were last season.
  • Stoke’s attack rating is probably the biggest surprise of the season.  Those numbers include games against Liverpool and Manchester City as well as a trip to West Ham.  That is a very difficult start and their relative offensive performance has been impressive.  Could Jonathan Walters et al. become legit fantasy options this season?  I, for one, will be watching.
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A little something on the new FPL Bonus Points System (BPS)

As any regular on an FPL forum well knows, the new FPL bonus points system (BPS) has been quite the conundrum for fantasy players this season.  Unlike the previous incarnation which was calculated by EA Sports behind closed doors, this season’s bonus points are calculated using OptaStats with a publicly accessible formula.  The results though have been unexpected, with goalkeepers and defenders factoring in bonus point equations at the expense of their attacking brethren.  In today’s post, I analyze the impact of the new BPS system to determine what, if any, real changes have occurred.

Methodology

The first action was to limit the size of the player pool evaluated to something manageable (lots of manual calculations required in this analysis).  Accordingly, I took a look at all non-goalkeepers with at least three percent ownership and 160 minutes played.  Arbitrary, yes, but considering we are already dealing with ridiculously small sample sizes I felt it prudent to ensure that the players analyzed had seen the pitch a fair amount.  Since it’s my study, I get to call the shots; if you fervently disagree I encourage you to start your own blog! 🙂

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