GW 30 Team Ratings

GW30 Ratings

Above you will find SoccerSaber’s Gameweek 30 team ratings for both full season and the past six matches.  Note that I have modified the recent form title to six matches (versus six weeks) to clearly articulate that I am taking the last six games played by each team, not all games in the last six weeks.  I feel the need to point this out given the scheduling mess created by the FA Cup and Europe obligations.  And yeah, I know these remain ugly, but hopefully the numbers are of some value.

I don’t have any comments this week as the limited fixture list left the ratings little changed from last week.  The six match ratings did fluctuate as older fixtures were removed from the calculation with new fixtures were added.  As previously discussed, I am not sure how to incorporate recent form into projections and overall team ratings.  For now, look at these as an indication of possible changes in performance you might not have noticed otherwise (West Ham’s struggling defense, for instance).

As always, comments and criticisms welcomed!

4 thoughts on “GW 30 Team Ratings

  1. 2ndMan

    Wouldn’t a simple (says the person not running the model) way to incorporate form be to include a discount factor for each stat and have this accumulate over the season. I’ve got no idea how you would calculate a suitable discount factor though, other than through trial-and-error and see how it changes the predictive power of the model.

    1. soccersaber Post author

      That is intuitive and my plan going forward. Logically, it seems there’s no question that recent form is more predictive of near-term results than long-term form. However, we need to have some empirical confidence this is, in fact the case as well as data to details the factors that you speak to. We also have issues with sample size as we have only 1 season plus 29 weeks of full data to work with.

      My plan is to essentially go back in time and determine how predictive my model is for future results for both full season and form. I know it is a very strong reflection of quality for games already played, but I don’t have the same confidence in its ability to predict. My hope is I can come up with strong factors for recent and season long form, as well as investigate into individual team home/away performance. Come August, I want the model to be more refined. Will take some work but I am confident it can be done.

      1. 2ndMan

        Home and Away is certainly something I’m looking to include in my metrics, especially for defences. Norwich for example rate as an average defence, but they are brilliant at home and awful away so it’s misleading to quote their average defensive rating.

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