GW 28 Team Ratings

Team Ratings

Above you will find SoccerSaber’s gameweek 28 team ratings for both full season and the past six weeks.  At some point I will beautify my presentation, but for now you’ll have to take them as the ugly beasts they are.  For anyone new to the site, please see my introduction to SoccerSaber’s team ratings for an explanation of the methodology behind these numbers.  Some general comments and clarifications on the ratings:

  • The six week form ratings are comprised from the last six matches played.  Accordingly, Arsenal, Chelsea, Southampton and West Ham have one game from the six week time span removed due to a double gameweek for each.
  • Strength of schedule is factored into all ratings.  This includes home pitch advantage which is set at a generic level for all clubs (i.e., I do not have specific home pitch advantages for different teams).
  • The lower the defensive rating, the better.
  • These ratings represent the percentage above league average.  For example, Reading’s defense has been 36.3% worse than the league average on the season.
  • The current correlation value for full season attack ratings to actual goals scored is 0.88.  It is 0.83 for defense to goals allowed.  Obviously, the six week form ratings are much lower due to sample size issues and increased impact of noise.
  • The top three attack overperformers are Chelsea, Reading and Manchester United.  The worst three underperformers are QPR, Everton and Newcastle United.
  • The top three defense overperformers are Stoke City, Arsenal, and Swansea.  The worst three underperformers are Southampton, Aston Villa, and Wigan.

Some comments on individual teams:

  • The two Manchester clubs have been the class of the league in my ratings for some time.  City has better underlying numbers due to a much stingier defense although they have underperformed offensively quite a bit though.
  • Liverpool has been a darling of my ratings for a while.  They consistently create substantially more chances than their opponents, something the model is very fond of.  Early in the season, those extra chances were typically wasted but recently that has improved a great deal.
  • Chelsea has never been a top three club in my model, with Liverpool, Everton and the Spurs all rating better than the Blues for most of the season.
  • Arsenal’s rating is built almost entirely on a small set of blow outs.  They have been very mediocre in the majority of their fixtures.
  • As you can see there is a huge gap between the top seven and the rest of the table.  While Swansea has been a fixture in the top ten, the remaining mid-table teams have oscillated quite a bit throughout the year.
  • Southampton has consistently risen in the rankings on the back of a very underrated defense.
  • Fulham’s season long attack numbers are solid, but they have been awful since December.  In my opinion, the six week form is a much better gauge of their current capabilities.
  • The bottom table teams have been consistent in their inconsistency.  For example, Sunderland started as a putrid attack with a solid backline, but have now become a solid attack with a poor defense.
  • With that said, Reading has consistently rated at or near the bottom of these rankings all season.  Needless to say I am not high on their chances of staving off relegation.

That it for this week.  I will be back next week with some possibly prettier tables. Please note that you can always access these ratings at my EPL Team Ratings Page located in the top menu.


2 thoughts on “GW 28 Team Ratings

  1. 2ndMan

    Thanks for another good article! Interesting that the model puts Chelsea below a handful of other teams, suggests their league finish last year was more reflective of their true ability, rather than it being a outlier (due to CL involvement) as most seem to think.

    1. soccersaber Post author

      Agreed. Their early season performance included an inordinate amount of goal per SOT (several from penalties) and was as a ridiculously high save percentage for Cech. Both have regressed to more normal levels and their points position has fallen because of it. It’s one of the reasons I have had a Blues defender for only a few weeks this year.


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